DISCOVERY & PLANNING · LESSON 02.05beginner

Estimation I — story points, t-shirt sizing, planning poker.

When you can't predict hours, predict relative size.

↳ tl;dr

Hours-based estimation breaks down on knowledge work because every task is different. Relative estimation (story points, t-shirt sizes) sidesteps the false precision: instead of "how long", you ask "how big compared to other things we've done."

Why relative beats absolute

Mike Cohn's argument (Agile Estimating and Planning, 2005): humans are bad at predicting time but reasonably good at comparing sizes. Asking "is this bigger or smaller than that other story we shipped?" gets you a usable estimate faster than asking "how many hours."

Story points (Fibonacci-ish)

Common scale: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20, 40, 100. The gaps widen on purpose — a story isn't a 7, it's either a 5 or an 8. Forcing the choice keeps the conversation honest. A 13 is a warning sign (likely needs to be split). A 40 means you don't understand it yet.

T-shirt sizing

XS / S / M / L / XL — even less precise than points, but useful for rough early-stage triage where points would imply a confidence you don't have. Common in roadmap prioritization before any specific story exists.

Planning poker

The team estimates each story simultaneously, revealing numbers at the same time. If estimates diverge, the high and low estimators explain — usually the discussion surfaces a hidden assumption. The technique attacks anchoring bias(the first number stated influencing everyone else).

the points-as-time mistake

As soon as managers say "a point is X hours", the system collapses. Points become hours-with-extra-steps and lose their honesty. Resist this conversion. If leadership demands hours, do a separate forecast — keep the points pure.

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Sources cited

  1. [01]
    Agile Estimating and Planning

    Cohn, M. · Pearson · 2005 · retrieved 2026-04

    Source of modern story-point thinking and planning poker as a discipline.

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Further reading

  1. [01]
    Agile Estimating and Planning

    Cohn, M. · Pearson · 2005 · retrieved 2026-04

    Source of modern story-point thinking and planning poker as a discipline.